West Coast Mets
Thanksgiving sucks turkey giblets.

That’s right. I said it. Thanksgiving sucks. 

Why?

What does Thanksgiving “celebrate”?

1. Genocide. 

Hooooooooooray! We all killed the Indians and took the continent for the white man. While we’re at it, lets kill lots of animals with weird necks and eat their flesh!

2. Gluttony. 

America is a fat fucking country. 65% of all adults over the age of 25 qualify as obese. That’s a LOT of fat motherfuckers. So now we have this holiday, which adds to the growing epidemic of childhood obesity (which means all of the fat parents are now raising fat kids). 

We all know that overeating is unhealthy for people, yet we set aside an entire day (some of us more than one) for it? 

The average Thanksgiving dinner is the equivalent of, 4000 calories. That’s one meal. That’s 4 fucking Big Macs in one sitting.  Think of the iconic image of a father or grandfather eating until he has to unbutton his pants. A person eats until their stomach expands, and that’s only a period of about 4 hours. WHAT THE FUCK!?!!!!

If ever there was a time to admire bulimics, Thanksgiving is that holiday.

There are people who proudly state that they have “special stretchy pants” for the Thanksgiving feast. You may call these people “Uncle Drunk,” “Cousin Jeff,” or “Grandma.” I call these people “fucking assholes you’re related to.”

3. Turkey. Lots of turkey.

If I was celebrating what I’m thankful for, and it revolved around FOOD, wouldn’t it make sense to eat the food that you like the most? Considering you’re supposed to eat a lot of it, you might as well gorge your gullet on what you personally consider the most delectable.

Is ANYONE’S favorite food turkey? Sure, we all LIKE turkey. But is it #1 on your favorite food list? No, of course not. It’s probably not even in your top 3. And if it is, might I suggest getting out more?

And who the hell thought cranberry sauce of any kind was a good idea? Probably the fucking Hawaiians who masturbate over Spam sandwiches.

Still not convinced Thanksgiving food is mostly awful? Ask yourself this. How come no one wants to have the leftovers the next day? Or the day after that? Or the day after that? Exactly.

Suck it.

4. Family!!! Or… Family? Ick!

And to top it all off, Thanksgiving is a holiday of obligation. We are generally obligated to spend it with our families.

Sure, there are some oddball people in the world who like their families. I like some members of my family, but also cannot stand the very existence of others. So why would you intentionally put yourself in a situation where you have to spend time with these awful pricks who happen to share some DNA with you? You didn’t ask for them to be born, and if you could get into a DeLorean and stop their births, you totally would.

To summarize, Thanksgiving sucks. A lot. I’ll eat some steak, or sushi, maybe both, without my family. And I’ll kill a Sioux or two while I’m at it.

2010 World Series Prediction - San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers

First, a quick rundown on my LCS predictions.

As well as I did with the LDS predictions, I could not have been more wrong on my LCS predictions.

American League Championship Series
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

I really hope I am wrong about this, but…
My prediction: New York Yankees in 6 games.”

Reality: Texas Rangers in 6 games.

VERY happy to be wrong on that prediction. Although things basically went as they should have as far as each team’s respective aces winning the games they started (CC Sabathia Game 1, even though he pitched poorly and did not get the win, Cliff Lee’s masterful performance of 8 shutout innings in the Bronx for Game 3), the major keys were Rangers pitcher Colby Lewis, who got the wins in Games 2 and 6, along with the Rangers offense coming alive against subpar Yankee pitching outside of Andy Pettitte.

The Rangers bullpen had a horrific implosion during Game 1, giving up 5 runs in the Top 8 which allowed the Yankees a huge come-from-behind victory.

People were freaked, especially in Texas. Could the Rangers possibly rebound from a devastating loss in Game 1? They did so in Game 2, beating up on Phil Hughes and the rest of the Yankees bullpen.

No need to recap the rest, the Rangers took the series in 6 games, pretty much outplaying the Yankees in every way except for Game 5 where CC Sabathia led his team to a 7-2 victory.

Texas is going to their first World Series in franchise history.

HOORAY!

National League Championship Series
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

My prediction: Philadelphia Phillies in 5 games.
Reality: San Francisco Giants in 6 games.

There was only one way the Giants were going to beat the Phillies, and that was to have their pitchers be lights out, shutting the Phillies offense down.

And that’s pretty much what happened except in Game 2 where the Phillies beat SF 6-1 behind Roy Oswalt.

Closer Brian Wilson got 3 saves and a win in the series, giving up 0 runs. That’s always a critical factor for any postseason team, to have their closer be lights out. Stating the obvious? Perhaps, but it shouldn’t go unmentioned considering how many teams are undone by bullpen arms that can’t finish the game.

This was definitely an upset, moreso than the ALCS because the Rangers matched up better against the Yankees, plus they had Cliff Lee. Plus during Game 6, you had the meltdown of Giants starter Jonathan Sanchez and yet was saved by the rest of the Giants pitching staff including Jeremy Affeldt (!) and Madison Bumgardner.

Also a very exciting series to watch, as all of the games except Game 2 were very close. Game 6 was probably the best game of the entire postseason thus far.

WORLD SERIES
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers

For the first time since 2005 (Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros), I can’t really say I have any rooting interest either way. There are many reasons to root for/against each team, and I do KINDA hope that Vladimir Guerrero gets a ring here, because he’s been one of my favorite players. But if he doesn’t get one with Texas, I won’t shed any tears. If the San Francisco Giants win the WS, it will drive Los Angeles Dodgers fans INSANE, which is almost reason enough to root for the Giants to win.

So who is going to win this World Series between two teams that have never won the World Series? Yes, the NEW YORK Giants have won the World Series, last time being 1954, but the San Francisco version, never.

I think we’re going to be in for a dogfight here. Game 1 pits “Mr. Perfect” Cliff Lee, who has yet to lose a postseason game, against Timmy Lincecum, the 2-time NL Cy Young winner in 2008 and 2009. This should prove to be a huge matchup, whether or not it lives up to all the hype.

Cliff Lee is still the rock of the Rangers pitching staff, and it’s hard to bet against him until he falters. You have Rangers catcher Bengie Molina getting a World Series ring regardless of who wins, since he played for the San Francisco Giants for half the 2010 season. But there also should be some innate knowledge that Molina possesses of the Giants pitching staff that should on some level, aid the Rangers in hitting guys like Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez (especially Sanchez. Of course the Giants have switched up their signs, but Molina has to know the Giants pitchers better than most, and share that knowledge with his current team.

If the Giants pitching staff can maintain their level of excellence from top to bottom the way they (mostly) did against Philadelphia, then they have a good chance of beating Texas. But Texas’ offense is hotter, their pitching is equal or better to San Francisco’s, and if they can take care of the Yankees pitchers, they SHOULD be able handle the Giants staff as well.

My prediction: Texas Rangers in 6 games.

2010 MLB Championship Series Predictions

First, a quick recap of my Division Series Predictions, which were pretty much dead-on across the board.

American League Division Series
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

My prediction: New York Yankees in 4 games.
Reality: New York Yankees in a 3 game sweep.

This was the only prediction I got “wrong” on any level, as I figured they would split the 2 games at Target Field, and then the Yankees would win 2 at home. Yankees were just too dominant. Even with the questionable umpiring, notably Hunter Wendelstedt’s awful strike zone in Game 2, and the totally blown call at the end of Game 2 where RF Greg Golson caught the ball but it was erroneously ruled a trap, the difference between the teams was very clear. The Yankees don’t let bad calls get to them, and take advantage when they need to.

American League Division Series
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

My prediction: Texas Rangers in 5 games.
Reality: Texas Rangers in 5 games.

Definitely an odd series. First time in MLB postseason history that the visiting team won every game. So much for home field advantage. Texas won the first 2 in Tampa, and everyone figured they’d then wrap it up in Arlington somehow. But then they lost two at home to the Rays, and had to go back to Cliff Lee in the first LDS Game 5 since 2005 Yankees-Angels.

National League Division Series
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

My prediction: Philadelpha Phillies in 3 games.
Reality: Philadelpha Phillies in 3 games.

This was the easiest prediction to make. Phillies had H2O (Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt) in the rotation. Halladay only pitched a no-hitter in Game 1, making him only the 2nd person ever to pitch one in the MLB postseason (Don Larsen’s perfect game in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series against the Brooklyn Dodgers being the other.) Oswalt didn’t pitch that well, but it didn’t matter when the Reds were making ridiculous mistakes on defense, highlighted by RF Jay Bruce losing a fly ball in the lights that allowed a Phillies rally in that game. Cincinnati’s heralded Aroldis Chapman was throwing 103mph, but the Phillies didn’t care. They just hit hit hit.

National League Division Series
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

My prediction: San Francisco Giants in 4 games.
Reality: San Francisco Giants in 4 games.

If Doc Halladay hadn’t thrown the no-hitter the night before, everyone would be talking about the dominance of Tim Lincecum in Game 1 of this NLDS. 14 K’s, 1 walk, 2 hits, a CG SHO. An unbelievable performance from the Freak. This was the best of the 4 series to watch too. All the games were close, all with drama, especially Atlanta’s Game 2 win. The games in Atlanta were also very exciting and simultaneously heartbreaking for 2B Brooks Conrad, whose 3 errors led to the Giants come-from-behind win in Game 3.

So, prediction wise, got all the right teams, and only off by 1 game in total. TOOT TOOOOOOOOT!!!

American League Championship Series
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees

There are a lot of “keys” to this series. It’s practically expected that CC Sabathia will win the games he starts, and Cliff Lee will win the games HE starts. One of the problems the Rangers had in going to 5 games with Tampa is that they wouldn’t be able to use Cliff Lee until Game 3 of the ALCS. At best, he would pitch Games 3 and 6 (or 7), instead of 1, 4, 7. Sabathia will be available to pitch 3 games, but Yankees manager Joe Girardi will adjust where needed.

It’s a bit oversimplified to EXPECT automatic wins from either CC or Cliff Lee, both who are obviously capable of faltering. In fact, I expect Andy Pettitte to be more of a sure thing than Sabathia.

The keys for the Rangers? #2 starter CJ Wilson needs to somehow match his ALDS performance from Game 2 in which he shut down the Rays through 6.1 IP. Wilson did lead the AL in walks this season with 93. He faced the Yankees 3 times, going 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA. He’s going to have to step things up for the postseason.

On the offensive side, Josh Hamilton has to wake up, as he was not very effective in the ALDS against Tampa. Vladdy and Nelson Cruz need to come through in big spots. Texas has a very potent offense and they can’t allow themselves to get overpowered by Yankee pitching.

Most people expect the Yankees to take this series. Unfortunately, count me among those predicting another World Series trip for the Bronx Bombers.

Much like last season’s ALCS between the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees, the Yankees will have a tough time with Texas. They are not pushovers by any stretch. They are not the Twins nor Reds this year.

I really hope I am wrong about this, but…

My prediction: New York Yankees in 6 games.

National League Championship Series
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies

If any team can upset Philadelphia, it’s the Giants and their dazzling starting pitchers of Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain. The problem for the Giants is still, offense. They didn’t have a lot of it against Atlanta, and Philly’s pitching is even better. Philly is just stacked from top to bottom, and even in the past when there was questions about their bullpen, the Giants are not going to be the team to run over Brad Lidge unless there’s some cosmic Pat Burrell walkoff occurrence.

I don’t expect a sweep here, but the Giants are going to have to get PERFECT pitching from their staff in order to beat Philly. That may happen from 1-2 guys, but not all of ‘em.

Philly has the home field advantage here, and they’ll also have it in the World Series.

My prediction: Philadelphia Phillies in 5 games.

2010 MLB Division Series Predictions

In the past, on my old blog, I used to do really detailed rundowns of each series before giving my predictions. Not doing so this time, at least not for the first round.

So here are my predictions for the ALDS and NLDS…

American League Division Series
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

Everyone says now that the Twins have home field advantage, this is the year they’ll beat the Yankees. I say no. This is not the best team the Twins have had over the years, and they’re without Morneau. They survived without him during the regular season, they won’t survive without him in the postseason. Yankees pitching may be a bit weaker since AJ Burnett has fallen apart, but they’re still an offensive force that can’t be stopped.

My prediction: New York Yankees in 4 games.

American League Division Series
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

To me, this series is about health. If Cliff Lee finds his postseason self and reverts to form, that’s 2 wins right there for Texas. If Josh Hamilton is healthy, the offense will be much much better for it. That’s not to say they don’t have offense with Vlad, Nelly Cruz, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, and *cough* Jeff Francoeur, but Hamilton is the key.

My prediction: Texas Rangers in 5 games.

National League Division Series
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have a very good offense, but their pitching, not so great. The Phillies are so dominant, I don’t see how they’re going to lose to the Reds, at all.

My prediction: Philadelpha Phillies in 3 games.

National League Division Series
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

In my mind, the most intriguing series of the four. They’re almost identical when it comes to offense, but San Francisco has the better pitching staff from top to bottom, though not by as much as you’d think. Still, with home field advantage at AT&T Park, I give this one to SF.

My prediction: San Francisco Giants in 4 games.

2010 MLB Awards from someone who has no vote.

American League:

MVP: Texas Rangers’ Josh Hamilton.

Josh Hamilton

Bottom line: .359 / .411 / .633 / 1.044. 32 HRs, 100 RBIs, 40 2B, 3 3B.

Did he miss most of September? Yes. Did it matter? Not at all. The Rangers had the AL West locked up by September, and they got to that point in great part because of Hamilton.

Are there other legitimate candidates for this award? Other than Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers, who put up a very impressive .328 / .420 / .622 / 1.042. 38 HRs, 128 RBIs, 45 2B, 1 3B. I don’t see anyone else as worthy of a vote. Of course, the issue with Cabrera is that the Tigers were never really contenders and a lot of voters tend to reserve the MVP award for players who were on contending / playoff teams. Hamilton qualifies on that level, Cabrera doesn’t. However, if you don’t believe in that part of the MVP criteria, then voting for Cabrera certainly makes sense.

Cy Young: Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez.


King Felix Hernandez

The last few weeks of debate has been amusing, but the bottom line is that Felix Hernandez has FACTUALLY been the best pitcher in the AL, period. The one department he’s not stellar in is the pitcher wins category, which is the one that he has the LEAST control over, especially due to the Mariners offense being one of the worst in baseball history. That’s not hyperbole, that’s reality.

King Felix has the lowest ERA (2.27), lowest BAA (.212) 2nd most K’s (232), which is 1 behind AL strikeout leader Jered Weaver of the Angels, most innings pitched (249.2), 2nd lowest WHIP (1.06) just slightly behind Cliff Lee (1.00), an AL-leading 6.0 WAR rating. Seriously, there’s not many categories where Hernandez doesn’t dominate. A 13-12 W-L record will end up hurting him in the eyes of many old old old head-in-sand BBWAA voters who don’t realize that W-L records for pitchers are not as indicative of a pitcher’s abilities as pretty much every other stat known to mankind.

Are there other legitimate candidates for this award? No. Seriously, no. CC Sabathia may have a 21-7 record, but see above. His ERA of 3.18 is almost a full point above King Felix. The WHIP is higher, he’s given up 3 more HRs, and so forth. The numbers beyond the W-L record simply do not support CC Sabathia for 2010 Cy Young. No way, no how.

Tampa Bay Rays’ David Price is closer (19-6, 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .221 BAA) but still doesn’t compare to the numbers that Felix Hernandez had. So, no, there’s no rationalization that can be made for voting for anyone other than King Felix.

Rookie of the Year: Texas Rangers’ Neftali Feliz.

Neftali Feliz

Another year where a closer should win this award. Last year it was the A’s Andrew Bailey who rightfully won the AL ROY award, and his numbers last year were even better than Feliz’s 2010.

Still, 40 saves for the Rangers with only 3 blown saves, a 4-3 record with a respectable but not WOW 2.73 ERA, 2nd lowest BAA of .176 behind Royals closer Joakim Soria whose BAA was a league-best .163.

Are there other legitimate candidates for this award? Not really. Detroit Tigers’ centerfielder Austin Jackson was ok, but led the AL with 170 Ks, and his offensive numbers .293 / .345 / .400 / .745, 4 HRs, 24 2B, 10 3B, 27 SB, 6 CS were certainly good, but not outstanding.

No one else is really in the picture, so Neftali Feliz should win this one hands down.

Manager of the Year: Boston Red Sox, Terry Francona.

Terry Francona

For a team as banged up and injured as Boston was this season to still finish at 89-73 in the AL East with a starting pitching staff that didn’t exactly rise to the occasion outside of Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester, shows that on occasion, certain big-league managers are really able to make lemonade out of lemons. They are rare, but they do exist.

Are there other legitimate candidates for this award? Certainly voters may lean towards AL managers who got their team into the postseason. Yankees’ Joe Girardi, Tampa’s Joe Maddon, Texas’ Ron Washington, and Minnesota’s Ron Gardenhire.

I eliminated Gardenhire immediately based on some insanely questionable moves he’s made this season, most notably against the Yankees back in May (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201005140.shtml) where he tried mixing and matching his bullpen guys to grotesque failure and loss.

I can’t find much fault with any votes for the others, but believe Francona was the best among his peers.

National League:

MVP: Cincinnati Reds’ Joey Votto.

Joey Votto

.324 / .424 (!) / .600 / 1.024. 37 HR, 113 RBI, 36 2B, 2 3B, 16 SB, 5 CS.

Votto had a truly monster year and carried the Reds into the postseason.

The only other legitimate candidate is the guy who wins the MVP every season, St. Louis Cardinals’ Albert Pujols. .312 / .414 / .596 / 1.011. 42 HR, 118 RBI, 39 2B, 1 3B, 14 SB, 4 CS.

His numbers are incredible as well, and if someone wanted to vote for him, I wouldn’t blame them at all. But the voters tend to favor the player whose team gets to the postseason, and the Cardinals didn’t make it this year. Another reason I give it to Votto over Pujols is because Pujols had Matt Holliday to share the weight of the offensive firepower. Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen are the offensive heart of the Reds, and neither of them are as solid at the plate as Matt Holliday.

Joey Votto truly carried the Reds offense by himself, whereas Pujols had help, and they still didn’t make the playoffs. But hey, I can’t argue against Pujols as an MVP choice.

Both Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski of the Colorado Rockies had very good seasons, with Tulo having one of the most ridiculous Septembers in recent memory, but both fall short of Votto’s overall numbers for the season.

Cy Young: Philadelphia Phillies’ Roy Halladay.

Roy Halladay

Another two-man race. It’s either Doc, or Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals, but Doc gets my vote. Or, non vote, as it were.

Here are each man’s numbers:

Roy Halladay:
21-10, 2.44 ERA, 250.2 IP, 219 K, 1.04 WHIP, .245 BAA, 9 CG, 4 SHO.

Adam Wainwright:
20-11, 2.42 ERA, 230.1 IP, 213 K, 1.05 WHIP, .224 BAA, 5 CG, 2 SHO.

The numbers are really close here, but Halladay did throw a perfect game (against the Marlins) this year. And the NL East was tougher than the NL Central, though that’s not necessarily Wainwright’s “fault.” Merely the reasons I give the nod to Halladay over Wainwright.

Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins and Ubaldo Jimenez of the Colorado Rockies, both favorites for this award in the 1st half of the year, did not sustain their effectiveness over the long haul.

Rookie of the Year: San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey.

Buster Posey

Yet another two-man race. It’s either Buster Posey or Atlanta Braves’ Jason Heyward, although I think this one strongly favors Mr. Posey.

Buster Posey:
.305 / .357 / .505 / .862. 18 HRs, 67 RBIs, 23 2B, 2 3B, 0 SB, 2 CS. 

Jason Heyward:
.277 / .393 / .456 / .849. 18 HRs, 72 RBIs, 29 2B, 5 3B, 11 SB, 6 CS.

The knock against Posey is that he came up “late” at the end of May, whereas Heyward played the whole season. To that I say, then why are their HR, RBI and 2B totals all very close, despite Posey having 100 fewer ABs?

Posey is a CATCHER putting up those numbers, Heyward is a RF. Most outfielders put up even better numbers than what Heyward did. But not too many regular everyday catchers put up the numbers that Posey did. In fact, only the Cubs’ Geovanny Soto (former NL ROY in 2008) and the Twins’ Joe Mauer had a higher OPS among everyday catchers than Posey. Soto’s was .890, Mauer’s was .871.

Manager of the Year: San Diego Padres’ Bud Black.

Bud Black

This should be relatively open and shut, even though the Padres did not make the postseason, they were in the race until the final game of the regular season.

I don’t think a single person predicted the San Diego Padres would win the NL West, certainly not anyone at ESPN, and several predicted them to be dead last in the division.

Somehow, Bud Black, certainly in large part due to ex-GM Kevin Towers having built one of the best pitching staffs in the NL, with the fantastic 7th, 8th, 9th inning men of Luke Gregerson, Mike Adams and Heath Bell, brought this team to the forefront out of absolutely nowhere.

Almost all season, people were asking, “Are the Padres for real? Can they sustain this?” And for almost the entire season, they did. In September-October though, they put together their first and only losing month of the season at 14-17, which was ill-timed faced with the surging San Francisco Giants who went 19-10 and ultimately won the NL West.

But the Padres did this with zero expectations and the 2nd lowest payroll in MLB entering the 2010 season at $37 million. Their great undoing was a lack of offensive firepower, but now I’m getting sidetracked with the team’s successes/failures.

Bottom line is Bud Black should win this award, and I don’t see that you can make a case for anyone else to win it.

Hopefully the writers of the BBWAA don’t stray from my pretend ballot, or there shall be HELL TO PAY!

2010 Mets Team Offense and Schedule breakdown

METS TEAM OFFENSE:  (boy I hope my numbers are right)

March-April 2010: (14-9) RS: 105, RA: 73
20th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 23rd in BA, 17th in OBP, 22nd in SLG
.242 / .329 / .384 / .713
33 2B, 11 3B, 18 HR, 92 RBI, 105 R
20 SB, 4 CS, 94 BB, 162 SO

May 2010: (12-17) RS: 130, RA: 146
9th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 9th in BA, 16th in OBP, 14th in SLG
.264 / .324 / .401 / .726
56 2B, 5 3B, 23 HR, 130 RBI, 130 R
33 SB, 6 CS, 87 BB, 199 SO

June 2010: (18-8) RS: 126, RA: 93
7th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 9th in BA, 19th in OBP, 5th in SLG
.274 / .324 / .424 / .748 
51 2B, 5 3B, 24 HR, 122 RBI, 126 R
22 SB, 8 CS, 61 BB, 158 SO

July 2010 (through July 29): (8-16) RS: 77, RA: 86
29th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 29th in BA, 29th in OBP, 28th in SLG
(Seattle is 30th in all of the above categories)
.229 / .291 / .351 / .642
35 2B, 7 3B, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 77 R
16 SB, 9 CS, 67 BB, 176 SO

2010 Season (through July 29): (51-50) RS: 438, RA: 398
24th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 24th in BA, 25th in OBP, 23rd in SLG
.253 / .317 / .391 / .708
175 2B, 28 3B, 83 HR, 420 RBI, 438 R
91 SB, 27 CS, 309 BB, 695 SO


——————————————————————————————————————

A couple of things jump out…

  • May 2010: RS: 130, RA: 146 - means that the overall pitching wasn’t so hot that month, giving up 146 runs in 31 games. That’s an average of 4.7 runs per game.
  • While from month to month, different aspects of the offense fluctuate, there is one basic constant. The team has never had an impressive team OBP. For example, in June, the best month of the season for the Mets, they ranked last in the NL in walks with 61. The Braves were highest with 113. Some people may say, “well of course, they’ve got Jeff Francoeur!” But it’s more than just one player that pulls down the overall OBP. A team OBP of .330 at minimum is what you’re striving for.
  • You don’t necessarily HAVE to have a great offense to be in 1st place, but it’s better to have one than not. The San Diego Padres’ offensive numbers on the whole are about equal to the Mets on the season. The difference is that their pitching/bullpen has been much better than the Mets, and for the most part, pitching isn’t the problem for New York though it can be improved.
  • The overall offensive dropoff is of concern,  but there’s also no real explainable reason for it other than the simple increase in games played on the road this month, and having 11 of them immediately after the All-Star Break.
  • The more you look at the numbers, it SEEMS that it reinforces what we’ve seen develop over the course of this season. The 2010 Mets are VERY GOOD at home, and VERY BAD on the road. Of course, most MLB teams do not have winning records away from their home ballparks, but the Mets road record is worse than the norm. The Mets current woes seem to simply be more of a function of their schedule than anything else one can point at. I wish there was a tangible reason one could point to as to why the Mets are so bad on the road, because then you know, they could fix it? But since we don’t know why…

2010 Mets at Home: (49 games) (32-17) RS: 226, RA: 147
.269 / .342 / .418 / .760
16th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 14th in BA, 12th in OBP, 17th in SLG
83 2B, 19 3B, 39 HR, 214 RBI, 226 R
50 SB, 7 CS, 168 BB, 295 SO

2010 Mets on the Road: (53 games) (20-33) RS: 212, RA: 251
.239 / .295 / .369 / .663
27th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 25th in BA, 28th in OBP, 25th in SLG
92 2B, 9 3B, 44 HR, 206 RBI, 212 R
41 SB, 20 CS, 141 BB, 400 SO

SCHEDULE BREAKDOWN:

  • In April 2010, the Mets had 16 home games and 7 road games. They were 14-9 in that month. Keep in mind the team got off to a slow 4-8 start before turning things around with the 9-1 homestand against the Braves, Cubs and Dodgers.
  • In May 2010, the Mets had 12 home games and 15 road games. They were 12-15 that month.
  • In June 2010, the Mets had 12 home games and 14 road games. They were 18-8 that month. Although it helps when 6 of your road games are against Baltimore and Cleveland, two of the worst teams in the AL. The Mets swept both 3-game series for 6 wins.
  • In July 2010, the Mets have 11 home games and 15 road games. As of July 29, they are 8-16. Assuming the Mets somehow won their next 2 July games (against Arizona) at Citi Field, they would have a record of 10-16 for the month.
  • In August 2010, the Mets have 13 home games and 15 road games. 5 of those road games are against NL East 1st-place Atlanta.
  • In September-October 2010, the Mets have 17 home games and 13 road games.


SO WHAT’S LEFT?

  • As of July 29, the team has 32 remaining home games, and 28 remaining home games.
  • With a current record of 52-50, if we’re to assume that the rest of the Mets’ season W-L is completely based on home/away (32-28), they’ll finish at 84-78. A respectable record, but not a playoff team.
  • One key advantage the Mets SHOULD have over the next 60 games is that they’re going to get in some away games against the NL’s worst teams (Houston, Pittsburgh) along with some home series against Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston and Arizona. Of course, they couldn’t beat Arizona on the road even once…
  • There are still a fair amount of games against the NL East that remain, which is ultimately the true test for the New York Mets. 33 of the next 60 games are against NL East teams. 10 vs Atlanta, 12 vs Philadelphia, 5 vs Florida, 6 vs Washington.
  • The biggest hump for the Mets (assuming they are still contending at this point) is a 10-game road trip at the end of August/beginning of September against Atlanta (4), Chicago (3) and Washington (3).
  • I believe the next 3 home games and subsequent road trip against Atlanta and Philadelphia will give us some insight as to whether this is a prolonged offensive slump the team is under that transcends home ballpark play, or if it’s simply a function of schedule. Thus far, it seems to be the schedule.